Since the BTC ETF narrative gripped the market last year, traders have been looking at ether as the next likely candidate to get a spot ETF approval in the U.S. Will the SEC Approve an ETH ETF? Let's look at the arguments both ways... Why Some Believe the SEC will DENY The Applications... JPMorgan's analysts are skeptical. “While we are sympathetic... we are skeptical that the SEC will classify ether as a commodity as soon as May” lead analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note to clients on Jan. 18, adding that the chances of approval of a spot ether ETF by May this year is “not higher than 50%.” The main reason - Ethereum’s transition from the proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in 2022 and the negative impact this shift has had on the blockchain’s decentralization. Ether now looks more similar to other altcoins the SEC has classified as securities. Why Some Think an ETH ETF Will Soon be APPROVED... The SEC recently sued virtually every major US crypto exchange for selling unlicensed securities, providing all with a list of which coins they believe violate regulations - Ethereum was missing from all of them. Another potentially positive sign is the approval of ether futures-based ETFs in September last year, which implies the SEC has officially deemed Ethereum a commodity. Note that the ETH Futures ETF's that were approved last year are generally used for speculative or hedging purposes - with a 'futures' ETF no party involved needs to actually purchase any crypto. Investors instead buy contracts where they attempt to guess what the price will be on preset dates the contract expires. A true ETF, like what was just approved for bitcoin, requires the company selling shares of the ETF it to truly own the coins the ETF represents, and the only price that matters is the actual price it is trading at. What You Can Do Now... Both sides have some very valid points/concerns, so what does that mean? In my opinion, the main takeaway is that there are legitimate reasons to speculate ETH ETF's may be approved. This scenario where existing investors see no reason to sell if the ETF news is bad, while the potential for good news becomes a reason for people to buy, can only result in gains as anticipation builds. Of course, a non-ETF related story that overshadows everything could happen as well - but unless it does, there may be a great short-term opportunity regardless of the final outcome.
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With the approval of Bitcoin ETF's in the US, many were expecting to see the gains in Bitcoin's price to continue, but despite optimistic forecasts that the long-awaited ETFs would trigger a bitcoin price surge, the opposite happened - now we're learning why. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was among those receiving ETF approval, so they converted their 'Trust' account into an ETF on January 11. Now that FTX has sold its full position, pressure to sell may greatly decrease, bringing back the bull market. While heavy selling by FTX's bankruptcy estate seems to be a significant contributor to bitcoin's price drop since the launch of US ETFs. With FTX having exited its position, some analysts think the selling pressure could now subside. But for now, bears remain in control of the bitcoin price. 
The announcement couldn't have happened any weirder, as the Bitcoin ETF's that were approved today were first announced by the SEC on X (Twitter) two days ago... but then they claimed their account was hacked, and stated that no ETFs had been approved. But how we found out doesn't really matter anymore, because it's now confirmed and re-confirmed that the Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved 11 applications for Bitcoin ETFs, the largest firms among them include BlackRock, Ark Investments/21Shares, Fidelity, Invesco, and VanEck. Trading Begins...Now! Because the SEC must respond to applications ETF applicants were anticipating an answer from the SEC at any moment, they were ready to go before officially receiving approval - because of this, they went live the next day. Traders from both the stock and crypto world have repeated the words "game-changer" when describing the impact this could have on cryptocurrencies, citing the new investors who now have exposure to the world's largest cryptocurrency. So who are these investors? If they're interested in Bitcoin, what were they waiting for? The newly launched ETFs all fighting over what they believe is a large segment of both individuals and companies that are interested in investing in Bitcoin, but hesitated to pull the trigger and buy some. Many potential investors cite their main concern is simply how to securely hold worth of a digital assets, which can be intimidating on a technical level. A Tsunami of Money Headed Towards Crypto? Many believe the floodgates are now open for massive amounts of institutional investment funds to enter the market, and their reasoning actually makes a lot of sense. In closing, the only thing we've officially gained this week are new possibilities, a 'reasonable expectation' for Bitcoin's future price just went up. But if there's one thing I've learned in my 6 years in the crypto world; prepare for what COULD come next, and never believe you know what that will. 
On January 5th, just two days after Bitcoin's 15th anniversary, a mysterious transaction has the cryptocurrency community scratching their heads. Someone sent 27 Bitcoin (approximately $1.2 million) to the network's genesis address, the very first wallet ever created that mined the first block of Bitcoin's blockchain. This legendary wallet, once controlled by the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, has become a digital monument to the birth of Bitcoin. The sender's history reveals only a single transaction: the withdrawal of 27 Bitcoin from the Binance exchange followed by their immediate transfer to Satoshi's dormant wallet. This gesture has sparked speculation and intrigue. Some interpret it as a symbolic "tribute" to Bitcoin's origins, a fitting commemoration on the anniversary. The genesis wallet already holds 50 original mining rewards, hundreds of small transactions, and now, these 27 new Bitcoins, bringing its total value to nearly 100 BTC worth over $4.6 million. Overall, there are dozens of wallet addresses created by Satoshi, and they hold over 1,100,000 Bitcoins worth almost $50 billion... While 27 Bitcoin might be mere pocket change for the mythical Satoshi, for most others, it's a significant investment. "Either Satoshi woke up, bought 27 bitcoin from Binance, and deposited into their wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars," Coinbase director Conor Grogan said in an X post. ...or is there more behind it? Flushing Out Satoshi? One intriguing theory suggests this could be designed to force Satoshi out of hiding, by testing a new US law requiring all crypto transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS. Personally, I'm among a fairly large segment of the crypto world that believes Satoshi is long gone, and most likely passed away shortly after Bitcoin's launch. As with most Satoshi related stories, I'm not expecting to learn more than what we know now. 
The crypto industry in the United States is making sure their voice is heard before the 2024 elections. Their primary method of accomplishing this - a Political Action Committee (Super PAC), which is an organization able to raise and spend an unlimited amount of money on political activism - such as funding ads for, or against specific candidates. The PAC's financial backing comes from a coalition of "20 leading companies and voices in the industry" which includes notable names such as Coinbase, Circle, Kraken, the Winklevoss brothers, Ripple, Messari, Andreessen Horowitz, and others. With 52 Million Americans Now Owning Digital Assets, We Now Have The Power To Sway Elections... If just 14% of crypto owners see crypto as their main factor in deciding who to vote for, it would be enough to flip the who won the popular vote in the last 2 elections.
It's important to consider the details - this is far from some secretive group of wealthy elite quietly pushing for something to bring them even more wealth.
The community of crypto traders and investors is too large to not to have a seat at the table. While the major industry players are funding this Super PAC, crypto's popularly is how they're able to afford it. From companies with hundreds of employees, to the independent crypto trader - we all want crypto regulations that treat us fairly, and are written by people who understand the fundamentals.
Unfortunately an Alarming Number of Lawmakers Lack Even a Basic Understanding...
This isn't a matter of perception, members of the current US Congress are officially part of the oldest congress in entire US history - and nothing seems to highlight this generational gap more than tech related issues. Many lawmakers come from the 'senior citizen' demographic, they have held seats in Congress and the Senate for decades, and on multiple occasions where they were expected to announce their retirement, ended up announcing their run for re-election. A perfect example of the kind of senseless challenges the industry faces is Brad Sherman, a Democrat from California. He's been there 10 years, will be running for re-election in 2024, and holds the extreme opinion that crypto should be banned entirely. He is unable to mention 'Bitcoin' without immediately framing it as something only useful in 'illegal activities' - his anti-crypto statements begun at the same time his largest campaign donor was a credit card processing company facing charges of illegally providing services to black market online gambling sites.
Crypto's use in various illegal activities is a common topic for a politician to have distorted or completely inaccurate information on. This is something where properly presenting the facts shut down immediately - between paper money, credit cards, checks, and cryptocurrency, crypto is actually the least-used in unlawful transactions.
Think crypto fraud has a larger total price tag after seeing multiple headlines over the past year about a hack where losses totaled in the millions? Well, crypto fraud was the source of about $2.5 billion in losses last year according to the FBI. Sure, that is a lot...unless you compare it to anything else. The lowest-tech payment method, paper checks, was used in over $8 billion of fraud last year. Credit Card fraud totaled around $3.5 billion - meaning crypto fraud was the lowest among all payment methods. Crypto fraud peaked during and shortly after Bitcoin's first major bull run, people rushed to get into crypto, and scammers cashed in on people hoping to get a piece of the action. After learning the hard way, nowadays, most people know no one can promise 'daily guaranteed profits' and companies that have no information on who owns and operates them may be hiding this info for a reason. This leads to another powerful stat lawmakers need to be aware of - as crypto usage grown, the annual rate of illegal/fraudulent transactions have gone down, for almost 3 years now. The biggest drop is actually this year, 2023 - and the firm that works with the FBI on crypto fraud cases is the source for this data. Once this fact is established, any anti-crypto argument based on fighting crime or stopping fraud sounds ridiculous... unless they're anti-credit card and anti-check as well. In Closing... The crypto industry is ready to make its voice heard in the 2024 elections, and there is power in numbers. But number more important than the amount of money the industry can spend in Washington DC, will be the 52 million crypto owners in US who will decide what standards, and how much effort we demand from our leaders. If united, this is who ultimately will determine winners and losers.
Do Kwon, founder of the failed Terra and Luna cryptocurrencies, will not be extradited to the United States for now. This is because a Montenegro appeals court ordered the suspension of the extradition ruling and a restart of the court case. The Court of Appeals Gives Kwon a Small Win... This overturns November's ruling that all legal requirements were met for Kwon's extradition. It also rules out forecasts he would be sent to the US to face fraud and other federal charges, which the Montenegro Justice Ministry had agreed to instead of extraditing him to South Korea. Kwon's lawyer argued the extradition ruling violated criminal procedure provisions, meaning it was made without due process. The appeals court agreed the Podgorica High Court “acted in contravention of the law on international legal assistance in criminal matters.” Kwon was Caught Fleeing South Korea, When Spotted in Montenegro in June 2022... Before the collapse, Do Kwon had dozens of companies in the crypto industry to investing, attracting them with high-rate 'guaranteed' interest earnings. Between this, and their massive sell-off of Bitcoin held in reserves while attempting to rescue their stablecoin, the entire market turned red. -------  Major asset management company VanEck filed its fifth amended application for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This move marks a new chapter in the evolution of cryptocurrencies and their integration into mainstream financial markets. VanEck's proposed ETF will trade under the unique ticker symbol "HODL"... A widely used term within the Bitcoin community. "HODL" stands for "hold on for dear life" and represents a long-term investment strategy where individuals buy and retain their Bitcoin, unfazed by market volatility. This choice of ticker reflects VanEck's alignment with the core values of the Bitcoin community, emphasizing the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency. Analysts have offered varied opinions on the "HODL" ticker. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, believes it will resonate well with crypto-savvy investors but might be less intuitive for traditional ones. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, views it as a bold and unconventional approach, contrasting it with the more conservative choices seen from other firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. The Companies Racing To Launch their Bitcoin ETF's Are The Largest Financial Intuitions in the World.. VanEck anticipates SEC approval for its spot Bitcoin ETF as early as January 2024... This latest move by VanEck signifies a strategic effort to connect with the Bitcoin community and tap into the growing interest in this digital asset. As the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, the anticipation surrounding SEC approval highlights the potential impact such a product could have on the crypto market, potentially making it more accessible and appealing to a wider audience. ------- Cryptocurrency expert Meltem Demirors discusses the outlook for digital assets in 2024, highlighting the recent rally and factors such as macroeconomic conditions and the upcoming Bitcoin ETF approvals. She believes that the market has shaken off the worries and mishaps of 2022 and that there is new demand coming in from retail flows and institutional investors. Demirors is optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies and sees this rally as a sign of a bullish market. 
The cryptocurrency market has almost returned to levels before the damaging collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Bitcoin recently surpassed $39,000 for the first time since May 2022, fueled in part by growing expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could finally approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the next few weeks, or even days. At the time of publishing, Bitcoin is trading around $39,700 - a gain of just $800 to $40,500 would officially represent a full recovery. 2022 - A Year So Bad it Took 2 Years To Recover From... Two big hits cut Bitcoin's price in half over just few months. The second big hit came just months later when crypto exchange FTX filed for bankruptcy after questions arose over its financial health and potential commingling of customer funds. As one of the largest and seemingly most reputable exchanges, FTX's failure shook investor confidence and reignited worries of contagion across the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin fell to under $16,000 amidst the fallout, its lowest level since late 2020. Since then, the Market has Been Gradually Recovering... Some analysts believe bitcoin could soon surmount the key psychological barrier of $40,000 if momentum continues building ahead of a long-awaited bitcoin spot ETF approval. But all are in agreement - the crypto winter is officially thawing. 
CZ (Changpeng Zhao) has resigned following a $4 billion plea with the US Justice Department that allows him to plead guilty to the charges against him including operating an exchange without a license, failing to screen users in a way that met anti-money laundering requirements, and using a Swiss based fund he 'secretly' owned to increase Binance's trading volume. In exchange for the money, he faces no additional punishments - except that he step down as the company CEO. Binance can continue to operate, and CZ will still play an active role as the company founder and owner. It really makes you wonder, was Binance ever truly such a bad company, committing serious legal violations earning them billions of dollars in illegitimate profits - it seems odd that the solution that resolved everything was simply to give the government some of those illegitimate profits, and magically the Justice Department forgives everything - even trusting them moving forward as Binance simply puts this all behind them and continues operating. The only big change resulting from all this is CZ realizing a company with a CEO who pled guilty could cause problems for Binance in several countries they operate in, so he's handed the role over to an someone he's worked closely with, Richard Teng. Some say it's a meaningless change if CZ will still be in the office, and everyone, including the new CEO forever sees him as the 'boss' - but it's too early for anyone to know how this will play out in the real world. Either way, there's a lot of people asking - who exactly is Richard Teng, the new Binance CEO/ Teng graduated in accounting from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She subsequently received her master's degree in finance from the University of Western Australia and concluded her formal academic training with a leadership program at the University of Pennsylvania, United States. According to data provided by Teng himself, he held several business leadership positions. For example, he directed the Regulatory Group of the SGX company between 2007 and 2015 . This works in conjunction with the Monetary Authority of Singapore. His task was to formulate policies and regulatory frameworks in everything related to the areas of securities listing, trading and clearing. He was also involved in developing regulatory solutions for new products and services. Teng also led the financial center Abu Dhabi Global Market , was a member of the advisory board of the Singapore Blockchain Association and participated as an advisor to the Global Fintech Institute. Since August 2021, this finance and regulation specialist has been working for the Binance exchange . He began his career at the company led by Changpeng Zhao as CEO of Singapore operations and moved through various positions since then. Until a few hours ago he served as head of Regional Markets. Minutes following the announcement Teng wrote a statement on his X feed saying: "It is an honor, and with the deepest humility I assume the role of new CEO of Binance" his writing begins, adding that "the foundation on which Binance stands today is more solid than ever" In a statement that feels directed towards the very government regulators that have been critical of Binance, he says: “To ensure a bright future, I intend to use everything I have learned over the past three decades of financial services and regulatory experience to guide our extraordinary, innovative and committed team. Teng Believes Regulations are "an essential requirement" for crypto to reach mass adoption... But he is critical of the current state of regulations around crypto, saying "Unfortunately, one of the factors slowing down the global growth of cryptocurrencies is the lack of legal standardization. Some regulators define cryptocurrency as a security, while others define it as a commodity. Some consider it a digital payment token, while others treat it as a virtual asset." Unfortunately, as long as those currently in power remain in power, there's little hope clarity will come to the currently confusing regulatory landscape. The modern crypto-CEO c needs to be prepared to have one government agency tell them crypto is not bound by a particular set of regulations, then find out they're supposedly in violation of those same regulation when a different agency sues them. |
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